The Day We Found the Smoking Gun

Today, the President's son released a thread of emails between himself and a Russian associate which solicit a meeting between an emissary and three top members of the campaign.  The email explicitly proposes an arrangement to provide information sourced by the Russian Government in order to assist the campaign.  The email thread, a first-hand source, was sent between June 3rd and 8th.

A lot of people will look at this in isolation and work to explain it away.  And some who are clever enough might even succeed.  None of that actually matters one bit.  What happened on the day, what was gathered in that meeting or as a result of it, none of it matters.

Because this is now the predicate through which we view everything that followed.  Remember this phrase: "knowing that the Russian government was working to support the election of Donald Trump."

• On June 14th, the DNC announced they had been hacked by the Russians
• On July 7th Carter Page takes a campaign-authorized trip to Moscow, knowing that the Russian government was working to support the election of Donald Trump.
• On July 18th, Jeff Sessions meets with Sergei Kislyak at the RNC knowing that the Russian government was working to support the election of Donald Trump, and the Trump campaign subsequently softened language on America's support of Ukraine against Russian aggression
• On July 23rd, the campaign watched WikiLeaks dump 22,000 hacked emails from the DNC, knowing that the Russian Government was working to support the election of Donald Trump.
• On July 24th, Paul Manafort said on television that the suggestion of connections between the campaign and Russia was "absurd," knowing that the Russian government was working to support the election of Donald Trump.
• Also on July 24th, Donald Trump Jr issued a similar denial on another program, saying "it's disgusting; it's phony... I can't think of bigger lies," knowing that the Russian government was working to support the election of Donald Trump.
• On July 27th, Donald Trump himself issued a similar denial on television.  
• On September 7, Republican Operative Peter Smith wrote a document recruiting others to help obtain Clinton emails he believed were hacked by Russians, implying in conversations and emails that he was working with the Trump campaign.
• On September 8, Jeff Sessions meets again with Sergei Kislyak in his Senate offices, knowing that the Russian government was working to support the election of Donald Trump.
• On September 26 and October 19, Donald Trump stated during two presidential debates that he doubted Russia hacked the DNC, knowing that the Russian government was working to support the election of Donald Trump.
• Early December, Flynn and Kushner meet with Kislyak in Trump Tower, knowing the Russian government had worked to support the election victory of Donald Trump, and asked to set up a back-channel of communications, possibly directly from the Russian embassy in Washington DC.
• December, Kushner met with Sergei Gorkov, chairman of Russia's (sanctioned by the US) Vneshecombank (VEB), knowing the Russian government had worked to support the election victory of Donald Trump.
• Around January 11, Trump emissary and brother of Betsy DeVos met with Putin emissary secretly in the Seychelles, knowing the Russian government had worked to support the election victory of Donald Trump.
• On January 26, acting Attorney General Sally Yates warned White House counsel that Mike Flynn could be subject to blackmail by Russians, due to his undisclosed conversations.  The White House failed to take action for 18 days afterward, knowing the Russian government had worked to support the election victory of Donald Trump.
• In February, Trump aides sought to unilaterally lift sanctions on Russia, knowing the Russian government had worked to support the election victory of Donald Trump. 
• On May 9th, Trump fires James Comey, stating later it was "this Russia thing" and a "phony story," knowing the Russian government had worked to support the election victory of Donald Trump.
• On May 10th, Trump meets with Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, where he bragged that he fired "nut job" James Comey, and said he "faced great pressure because of Russia" while extemporaneously providing extremely sensitive HUMINT regarding ISIS in Syria, knowing the Russian government had worked to support the election victory of Donald Trump.

As you can see, this new lens absolutely and irrevocably changes the significance of these already shady events.  In isolation, the email is not a smoking gun, but it is a bloody fingerprint that ties the rest of the crime scene neatly together.

Lessons from Moscow: Obliterating Terrorism

One of this president's top priorities and promises has been to "obliterate ISIS."  Since 9/11, the shadow of terrorist attacks from extreme Islamist elements has certainly loomed large over our nation.  But how do you kill an ideology?  Is it even possible?

One could argue that the reason we have not been successful in "obliterating" terrorism is that we haven't been aggressive enough in prosecuting the war.  Our foreign policy has certainly wavered under both of the previous administrations at different points.

Fortunately, we have other examples to learn from.  One big one is Russia's efforts to stamp out their own Islamist extremist group in Chechnya.

Now, nobody could accuse Russia of being reluctant to prosecute this war.  Over the course of the last 17 years (pre- 9/11), over 50,000 people have been killed on both sides, many of them civilians.  Exactly how many and on which sides varies based on who you ask, but all estimates are well north of 50,000.  That is a level of commitment that America hasn't come close to delivering in 45 years.  The Russians are serious.

So what have they gotten for their efforts (besides killing 50,000 people)?  Here's just a brief list of things:

• Chechen fighters have become some of the most hardened mujahedin in the world
• Fighters from other nations, including Afghanistan and Syria, have come in to fight alongside their brothers, bringing networks and knowledge with them (and taking them home again).
• Chechen fighters have gone to Syria and Afghanistan during surge periods to shore up their ranks
• Grozny, the capital city of the Chechen Republic, is essentially a pile of rubble
• And, they're still fighting.  In fact, indications are, as the Syrian conflict takes a turn, many fighters are returning to Chechnya to fight another day

Long story short, a full-fledged aggressive military campaign has not successfully eliminated the threat from these extremist elements.  And that says a lot about how mujahedin operate around the world.  They are the ultimate opportunists, seeking (and sometimes cultivating) conflict in areas where they can lend their lives to the cause.  The conflicts don't normally start out with jihadis, but they wind up with them.  They form, scatter, and re-form wherever strife exists.  They come in like Robin Hood's band of Merry Men, distributing money and support, recruiting new fighters, and tipping the scales.  All the while, they promote the most extreme version (or perversion) of basically 14th century Islam.  

But these aren't the only examples.  Consider the revolution in Northern Ireland or the battle with the communist FARC in Colombia.  These conflicts, too, lasted for years upon years, and ultimately were unsuccessful, militarily speaking.  You simply can't kill an idea.  

Does that mean that there is no place for military force?  No, it doesn't.  Von Clausewitz said "war is diplomacy by other means."  He was a smart guy.  He realized that the ultimate end is always diplomatic, and that military force is applied for the purpose of making the alternative unacceptably costly.  But it starts and ends with the tools of State.  

An all-out war on ISIS will certainly kill a lot of those fighting today.  But it will also kill tens of thousands of civilians in its path.  And will certainly cement the idea for yet another generation that America is an enemy worth hating and worthy of jihad.  And, like past ones, this new generation will come from all corners of the earth to join the fight.  Fear-driven warfare is not the solution.  It is the recipe for an entirely new round of conflict that will consume the best years of our millennial generation.  

Trump, The Russians, and the Null Hypothesis

In the last six months, a nebulous and nefarious Russia-Trump connection has been dogging at the heels of our current president.  Conservatives are calling it conspiracy; liberals are calling it grounds for impeachment.  Yet, for all of the circumstantial threads, there has yet to be a smoking gun.

One way or another, the future of our nation hinges on the truth of the matter.  If, in fact, the administration is in cahoots with the minions of Vladimir Putin, then that's a threat to the integrity of our democracy.  If not, we owe it to the stability of our constitutionally appointed and duly elected government to do their jobs without this cloud hanging over them.  If not, everything they do will be viewed through the lens of possible collusion.

Let me be absolutely clear: I'm not happy about any of this.  It gives me no joy, regardless of how this turns out.  Either it has been the most reckless case of political innuendo ever, or our electorate have allowed an adversary to literally plant their cronies at the highest level of government.  Either way, this is an extremely dire sign of the state of our democracy and institutions.

I've written a series of short posts on Facebook, titled Debunking 101.  One of those posts was about the "Null Hypothesis".  It's an analytical approach where, being stuck on a problem, you work to prove the opposite is true.  If you can find proof of the Null Hypothesis, then you have to abandon your theory.  So that's what I'm going to do here.

Theory:  Donald Trump is NOT in collusion with Vladimir Putin.  

Likely Indicators:

• Support for NATO - America's premier military counterpoint to Russia
• Opposition to Russian aggression in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, most likely through supporting ongoing sanctions that have been levied in response
• Actively supporting the Ukrainians in repelling Russian aggression
• Condemnation of a Russian intelligence and propaganda campaign to influence our election in 2016
• Statements clarifying the administration's position toward Russia
• No associate connections to Russia or Russians
• No financial connections to Russia or Russians
• No philosophical connections to Vladimir Putin, Russia, or Russians
• A sense of transparency and trustworthiness in general

If all, or even most of these are provably true, then we have to abandon the idea of the Putinized President.  

On NATO, the president has been quite muddy.  Since taking office, he has referred to NATO as "obsolete" but later expressed his support.  On the campaign trail, he was consistently anti-NATO.  His cabinet and VP Pence have worked to shore up the appearance of support for NATO, but it really remains to be seen which of the president's positions will emerge as the "real" policy.  

As for the Ukraine, the president has yet to make a public statement.  However, it is noteworthy that military action in the eastern regions of that country increased in the days following his first phone call with Vladimir Putin.  And no criticism has been heard from the administration in response.  The Russian version of the readout  of that call mentions the "importance of restoring mutually beneficial trade and economic ties," but goes no further.  We are told that Mike Flynn discussed sanctions during a phone call with the Russian ambassador, but we don't have any details about what was said.In a private, off-the-record meeting with a Ukrainian official, the president is said to have told her that he "would not abandon" the Ukraine.  Still there are no more details and no public statements.  We do have increasing evidence that elements of the Republican platform supporting the Ukraine were removed at the specific insistence of the president. 

On the subject of the Russian hacking and propaganda campaign during the election, the president made a single statement in public.  "He shouldn't have done it.  I don't believe he will be doing it more now."  That was in response to press questions on the subject in his first press conference after the election.  I understand that this is a politically awkward position, as he tries to defend the legitimacy of his election while simultaneously acknowledging the fact that the election itself was the subject of influence from a foreign power.  

On Russia in general, the president has been very equivocal.  He'd like to do a deal, wants to have better relations, but hasn't gone out and done anything to either blatantly soften or strengthen America's stance toward Russia.  Not much to go on here.  

When it comes to Russian contacts and connections, there's something you need to understand.  There is almost no distinction between private and government actors in the Russian system.  Communism may be officially dead, but all successful institutions in Russia operate with the explicit blessing (and to the benefit) of Vladimir Putin.  Private citizens often operate at the behest of the state, and the intelligence directorate is literally everywhere.  So when you look at associations, it's very difficult to separate legitimate private actors from state-sponsored ones.  

Still, you have a string of actors on this stage that raise questions.  Manafort is deeply connected to pro-Kremlin actors.  Flynn worked for state media, RT. Carter Page worked for and with GAZPROM.  Rex Tillerson is a recipient of the Russian Medal of Friendship.  And Wilbur Ross co-chairs a bank in Cyprus with at least one Russian Oligarch that is known to deal with vast sums of Russian money.  None of these high-level associations help disprove or even dissuade any Russian associations.  

Finally, we come to transparency.  There isn't any.  The president has either ignored or circumvented tradition and law that requires disclosure of finances and removal of conflicts of interests.  It's not unusual for large and wealthy companies and operators to use shell companies to compartmentalize and shield assets from liability.  But without tax returns and other disclosure, it's impossible to know where these rabbit holes lead.  The president has had a demonstrable issue with the truth in ways small and large.  In specific relation to Flynn and other revelations, there has been a pattern of strong denial until the point where the facts are revealed in the press.  These patterns make it extremely difficult to discern what is true in his statements.  

So, what are we left with?  There are definitely some nods toward the Null Hypothesis, but nothing particularly solid.  So, while we don't have a smoking gun in favor of the "collusion angle," we certainly don''t have enough to discard it either.  As American citizens, we must know the truth.  Party and politics aside.  All of us should be pushing our elected representatives to investigate the entirety of this matter as quickly and thoroughly as possible.  And we should all continue to gut check against the Null Hypothesis to make sure we aren't chasing shadows that just aren't there.